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Pakistan’s health system rests on two financing channels that are not interchangeable. Public budgets are personnel-heavy and fixed, financing salaries, facilities and routine operating costs. Official Development Assistance is flexible and commodity-heavy, financing the vaccines, diagnostics, supply chains, surveillance and specialist staff that vertical disease programmes depend on. With global ODA now contracting sharply and grants falling to just 4% of total flows to Pakistan, the consequences are functional rather than fiscal. The 2025 USAID suspension closed over 60 facilities and disrupted care for 1.7 million people; a USD 27.2 million Global Fund reduction halved TB monitoring in two provinces and placed treatment for over 42,000 HIV-positive patients at risk. These are not system-wide collapses but precise ruptures in the functions external financing has long underwritten.
This report maps how the contraction is transmitting through the system and sets out a structured transition agenda for federal and provincial governments built around foundations, response and delivery.
Authors: Behzad Taimur, Shahab Siddiqi and Syeda Farwa Qamar Jaffri
Research: Asbah Asif
Review: Umar Nadeem
Design: Maryam Afeefa